A severe Arctic blast is sweeping across the eastern United States, unleashing severe winter weather and triggering intense lake-effect snow, creating potentially hazardous travel conditions throughout the Great Lakes region this weekend. Travelers in the area should be prepared for significant disruptions to post-Thanksgiving travel plans.
Lake-Effect Snow Warning in Effect
The National Weather Service has issued a lake-effect snow warning that remains in effect until early Monday. Whiteout conditions are anticipated, which will make travel “treacherous and potentially dangerous” across a wide area. This zone of high-impact weather extends from Cleveland, Ohio, to Buffalo, New York, and includes parts of upper New York and Michigan. Residents and travelers are urged to monitor weather updates closely and avoid non-essential travel.
The Arctic blast responsible for this severe weather is moving from the Dakotas and Minnesota towards the Southeast. Temperatures are expected to plummet, reaching up to 20 degrees below average in parts of the Northern Plains and approximately 10 degrees below normal in states closer to the Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. These dangerously cold wind chills will persist at least through Monday, increasing the risk of frostbite and hypothermia for those exposed to the elements.
Earlier this week, the initial wave of this frigid air mass moved over the Great Lakes, initiating heavy lake-effect snowfall in regions of New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The current, more intense phase of this weather pattern is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to even greater snowfall totals and travel disruptions.
In response to the escalating weather threat, New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency for 11 counties on Friday. Some of these counties are forecast to receive up to six feet of snow, highlighting the extreme nature of this lake-effect snow event. Travelers are strongly advised to carry a winter survival kit in their vehicles if they must travel and to be prepared for rapidly changing and hazardous conditions.
Understanding Lake-Effect Snow
Lake-effect snow is a localized weather phenomenon common in the Great Lakes region, particularly during the late fall and winter months. It occurs when cold air, typically originating from Canada, passes over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes. This temperature difference creates instability in the lower atmosphere.
As the cold air moves over the warmer lake water, it picks up moisture and heat. This warm, moist air rises, cools rapidly as it ascends, and condenses to form clouds. Given the significant temperature contrast between the air and water, this process can lead to the rapid development of intense, localized snow bands downwind of the lakes. These bands can produce extremely heavy snowfall rates over a relatively small area, while areas just a few miles away may receive little or no snow. The Great Lakes’ unusually warm water temperatures this year may be contributing to the intensity of the lake-effect snow, as warmer water provides more moisture to fuel these snowstorms. A historical example of the power of lake-effect snow is the November 2014 storm in Erie County, New York, which dumped nearly 80 inches of snow and caused over $46 million in damages, demonstrating the potentially devastating impact of these events.
Areas Under the Heaviest Snowfall
Weather forecasters are predicting the most significant snowfall accumulations east of Lake Ontario, potentially reaching up to 6 feet by Monday. Cities in New York such as Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville are particularly at risk. In Ohio, Northern Erie and Southern Erie counties are expected to receive over 3 feet of snow, with some areas in Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, and Lake counties potentially seeing up to 5 feet. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, especially areas east of Marquette, could see up to 3 feet of snow from Sunday into Monday. Travel in these areas is expected to be severely hampered, if not impossible, at times due to heavy snow and whiteout conditions.
Travel Disruption and Flight Delays
The severe winter weather is already having a significant impact on travel. FlightAware data reported that nearly 4,000 flights within the U.S. were delayed on Friday, and over 50 flights were canceled. With nearly 80 million people expected to have traveled for Thanksgiving this year, including 3 million air travelers anticipated on Sunday, these weather-related delays and cancellations could have a cascading effect on travel plans nationwide. Travelers are urged to check the status of their flights before heading to the airport and to anticipate potential delays and disruptions. Road travel is also strongly discouraged in the areas under lake-effect snow warnings due to the dangerous driving conditions.
For further information and updates on this developing weather situation, please refer to the National Weather Service and other reputable weather sources. Travelers are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize safety during this period of treacherous weather.
