WASHINGTON, DC (November 18, 2024) – Get ready for bustling airports and highways this Thanksgiving! AAA projects a staggering 79.9 million travelers will journey 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period*. This year, for the first time, AAA’s forecast broadens its scope to include the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving Day, providing a more comprehensive picture of holiday travel patterns. The anticipated 80 million travelers mark a significant increase of 1.7 million compared to last year and a substantial 2 million more than in pre-pandemic 2019, signaling a robust rebound in travel enthusiasm.
“Thanksgiving firmly holds its position as the year’s busiest travel holiday, and we are anticipating unprecedented numbers across all modes of transportation – from driving to flying and cruising,” stated Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Thanksgiving is synonymous with reconnecting with loved ones, and travel is integral to these cherished reunions. The desire to travel remains strong post-pandemic, with AAA members actively seeking new experiences and unforgettable vacations.”
Chart showing Thanksgiving travelers by mode of transport, highlighting car travel as the most popular choice, followed by air travel and other modes.
Thanksgiving Travel Modes in Detail
Record-Breaking Road Trips: If you’re planning a road trip, you’re in good company! A projected record of 71.7 million people will travel by car this Thanksgiving. This represents an increase of 1.3 million drivers compared to last year and even surpasses the pre-pandemic figures of 70.6 million in 2019. The open road is calling, and millions are answering.
Good news for drivers: gas prices are anticipated to be lower this Thanksgiving compared to 2023. The national average on Thanksgiving Day last year was $3.26 per gallon. Experts suggest that falling oil prices this autumn could push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, potentially offering some relief at the pump before holiday travels begin. Regions east of the Rockies are expected to see even more significant savings, with gas prices ranging from $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in over a dozen states.
If you’re considering a rental car for your Thanksgiving travels, AAA’s car rental partner Hertz reports high demand in several popular destinations. Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are experiencing the highest rental bookings for the holiday. Be prepared for peak rental activity on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving for pick-ups and the Monday and Tuesday after Thanksgiving for returns. Booking in advance is highly recommended to secure your vehicle and potentially find better rates.
Soaring to New Heights: Air Travel Reaches Record Levels: Prepare for crowded airports! Thanksgiving air travel is also predicted to reach new heights, with 5.84 million people projected to fly domestically. This signifies a 2% increase from last year and a remarkable 11% surge compared to 2019. Despite a slight increase in domestic flight costs (around 3% higher than last year), the number of bookings remains robust, indicating travelers are willing to pay a bit more to reach their Thanksgiving destinations by air.
For those looking to venture further afield, international flights are experiencing a significant boom. Bookings are up by an impressive 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, partly fueled by a 5% decrease in international airfare costs. Europe and the Caribbean are particularly popular international destinations for Thanksgiving travelers.
Other Modes of Transport Gain Popularity: Beyond cars and planes, nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is witnessing substantial growth, with an almost 9% increase compared to last year and an 18% jump over 2019. Cruises are a major driver of this growth, experiencing “red-hot” demand post-pandemic. Domestic and international cruise bookings are up by a remarkable 20% compared to last Thanksgiving, suggesting many are opting for a relaxing Thanksgiving at sea.
Navigating Thanksgiving Traffic: Best and Worst Travel Times
According to transportation data and insights provider INRIX, the most congested times to drive during Thanksgiving week will be Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For a smoother journey, the best time to be on the road is Thanksgiving Day itself, when roads are typically less crowded. If you’re returning home on Sunday, aim for an early morning departure. Monday travelers should anticipate a mix of holiday traffic and regular work commuters.
“With a record number of travelers expected on the roads, utilizing traffic apps and local news alerts is crucial to avoid significant delays,” advises Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially pertinent for drivers in major metropolitan areas such as Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic congestion could more than double compared to a typical day.”
| Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car |
|---|
| Date |
| Mon, Nov 25 |
| Tue, Nov 26 |
| Wed, Nov 27 |
| Thu, Nov 28 (Thanksgiving Day) |
| Fri, Nov 29 |
| Sat, Nov 30 |
| Sun, Dec 1 |
| Mon, Dec 2 |
| Peak Congestion by Metro |
|---|
| Metro |
| Atlanta |
| Boston |
| Chicago |
| Denver |
| Detroit |
| Houston |
| Los Angeles |
| Minneapolis |
| New York |
| Philadelphia |
| Portland |
| San Diego |
| San Francisco |
| Seattle |
| Tampa |
| Washington, DC |
Top Thanksgiving Destinations for 2024
Looking for destination inspiration? AAA’s booking data reveals warm weather destinations are highly sought after for Thanksgiving. Florida dominates the domestic top 10 list, with Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Tampa all featuring due to their appealing combination of beaches, theme parks, and cruise ports. Other popular domestic destinations include New York City, Anaheim/Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.
For international travel, Europe and the Caribbean are leading the way. Beach resorts, iconic tourist attractions, and river cruises in these regions are proving incredibly popular. Top international destinations include Budapest, Mexicali, San Juan, Cancun, Punta Cana, Rome, Amsterdam, Paris, Barcelona, and Munich.
| DOMESTIC Top Thanksgiving Destinations | INTERNATIONAL/CARIBBEAN Top Thanksgiving Destinations |
|---|---|
| Orlando, FL | Budapest, Hungary |
| Miami, FL | Mexicali, Mexico |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | San Juan, Puerto Rico |
| New York, NY | Cancun, Mexico |
| Anaheim/Los Angeles, CA | Punta Cana, Dominican Republic |
| Tampa, FL | Rome, Italy |
| Honolulu, HI | Amsterdam, Netherlands |
| San Francisco, CA | Paris, France |
| Las Vegas, NV | Barcelona, Spain |
| Atlanta, GA | Munich, Germany |
Thanksgiving Travel Forecast Methodology
AAA, in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), utilizes a robust methodology to forecast domestic travel volumes. This methodology incorporates economic variables from SPGMI’s proprietary databases, including macroeconomic drivers (employment, output, household net worth), asset prices (stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators), and travel/tourism-related variables (gasoline prices, airline travel, hotel stays). AAA and SPGMI have historical data on holiday travel volumes dating back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates are sourced from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM, a comprehensive study of U.S. resident travel behavior. DK SHIFFLET surveys over 50,000 U.S. households monthly to gather detailed travel data, enabling accurate estimations of visitor volume and spending, trend identification, and forecasting of U.S. travel behavior after trips are completed.
The travel forecast is presented in person-trips, encompassing the total U.S. holiday travel volume and mode of transportation. The forecast for this report was prepared during the week of October 7, 2024. It’s important to note that AAA forecasts focus solely on domestic leisure travel, and direct comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers are not appropriate due to differences in data scope and methodology.
* Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period Definition: For this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period spans seven days, from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. This expanded timeframe, including the Tuesday before and Monday after Thanksgiving, provides a more complete picture of holiday travel patterns. Previous forecasts focused on Wednesday through Sunday. To ensure accurate year-over-year comparisons, the 2024 forecast includes actual numbers from the past five years (including pre-pandemic 2019) for the same 7-day period.
About AAA: Since its inception in 1902, AAA has evolved from an automotive enthusiast group advocating for better roads to one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA offers a wide range of services, including roadside assistance, travel planning, member discounts, and financial/insurance services, enhancing the lives of over 65 million members across North America.
About S&P Global: S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence to governments, businesses, and individuals, empowering informed decision-making. Their expertise spans credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions across global capital, commodity, and automotive markets.
About DKSA: DK SHIFFLET possesses the industry’s most comprehensive database on U.S. resident travel, both domestically and internationally. Their monthly data collection from a large representative sample provides invaluable insights for travel organizations and strategic planning.
About INRIX: INRIX, founded in 2004, is a pioneer in intelligent mobility solutions, transforming data from connected devices and vehicles into actionable mobility insights. INRIX empowers cities, businesses, and individuals with data-driven solutions to create a smarter, safer, and greener world.
