I. Introduction
When Donald Trump assumed the presidency in 2017, his administration swiftly implemented a series of immigration policies that dramatically reshaped the U.S. immigration landscape, the effects of which are still felt today. Among these initial actions, the most controversial and widely discussed was the Trump Travel Ban. This travel ban, officially known as Executive Order 13769, targeted individuals from several Muslim-majority countries, sparking global protests and legal challenges. Alongside the travel ban, the administration also significantly reduced refugee admissions, introduced “extreme vetting” procedures for visa applicants, and aggressively expanded immigration enforcement both at the border and within the United States. These measures were not only campaign promises fulfilled but also became the hallmarks of President Trump’s hardline immigration stance during his first term.
Alt text: Demonstrators at John F. Kennedy International Airport protest against President Trump’s executive order imposing a travel ban, holding signs and chanting slogans.
As the 2024 election campaign unfolded, Trump’s rhetoric on immigration intensified, becoming even more aggressive. He promised “mass deportation,” impenetrable borders, and severe restrictions on asylum access. Candidate Trump pledged to initiate “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” potentially targeting not only undocumented immigrants but also those currently protected under programs like DACA, TPS, DED, and humanitarian parole programs established by the Biden administration. These proposed actions signify an unprecedented escalation in immigration enforcement and new restrictions, which could be rapidly implemented through executive orders and administrative actions upon a new term.
Trump’s second-term immigration agenda is not merely a continuation of his first term; it’s an intensification. It aims to expand deportation operations, revive contentious policies like Title 42 and the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), and deploy military resources to bolster border enforcement and deportation processes. His administration has also indicated intentions to dismantle legal pathways created by the Biden administration, which allowed over 1.3 million migrants to legally enter the U.S. The scale and scope of these proposed actions are becoming clearer as Trump’s transition team outlines strategies for detention and deportation.
With Trump’s cabinet appointments taking shape, it’s evident that a swift, high-impact approach to reshape U.S. immigration policy and redefine the nation’s stance on newcomers is planned. While the precise actions in the early days of a second term remain uncertain, Trump’s commitment to his immigration campaign promises and his advisors’ detailed preparations suggest a flurry of activity starting January 20, 2025. This analysis will outline the potential steps a second Trump administration might take on immigration within its first 100 days, considering the context of his previous policies, including the impactful Trump travel ban.
II. Border Security and Enforcement
To rapidly enact his second-term immigration agenda, Trump has stated his intention to declare a national emergency at the southern border. This declaration would enable him to deploy the National Guard and military resources to aid in border enforcement, a tactic reminiscent of his first term actions following the implementation of the travel ban, where security concerns were heavily emphasized. Despite criticism from within the Republican Party and contested legality, declaring a national emergency would allow for the swift closure of key entry points and militarization of the border. During his first term, Trump utilized emergency authority to access military funds for border wall construction, setting a precedent for such actions.
Alt text: National Guard soldiers stand guard along the US-Mexico border, illustrating increased military presence for border security measures.
Despite the COVID-19 health emergency officially ending in 2023, Trump also plans to reinstate Title 42, a public health authority used to rapidly expel migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. This policy, similar in its restrictive nature to the travel ban, allows for expulsions without providing migrants the opportunity to seek asylum or humanitarian relief. Although initially invoked for the pandemic, Trump advisors had previously sought to use this health authority to tighten border controls even before the pandemic. In a second term, Trump might attempt to justify a non-pandemic use of Title 42 by linking mass migration to public health threats from infectious diseases. Such actions would likely face legal challenges and criticism from public health experts, who have argued against the effectiveness of Title 42 in preventing disease spread.
Trump has also pledged to resume and expand construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall, potentially using an executive order to expedite the process, mirroring the executive actions used for the initial travel ban. While funding and legal challenges related to land acquisition are expected, anticipated support from Republican majorities in Congress could lead to swift passage of appropriations legislation, potentially through the reconciliation process, to provide significant funding.
III. Mass Deportation and Increased Interior Enforcement
Trump campaigned on a platform of “mass deportation,” promising to begin the “largest mass deportation operation” in American history on Day 1 of his second administration. This ambition surpasses even the broad scope of the initial travel ban in terms of immediate impact on immigrant communities. He aims to deport 15 to 20 million people, a number significantly higher than reliable estimates of the undocumented population, which is around 11 million. Logistical challenges concerning personnel, detention space, and funding will undoubtedly limit the scale of mass deportations, especially in early 2025.
Trump’s advisors have indicated that initial deportation targets will include individuals with criminal records and those with final orders of removal. While significant, this population is a relatively small portion of the overall undocumented population. ICE estimates show about 660,000 noncitizens with criminal histories on their docket, and approximately 1.4 million people with final orders of removal remain in the U.S. The administration plans highly visible, large-scale enforcement actions to locate and arrest undocumented residents, reminiscent of the fear and uncertainty generated by the travel ban within immigrant communities. Tom Homan, Trump’s “border czar,” has suggested a resumption of extensive workplace raids targeting unauthorized workers early in the administration.
Alt text: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers conduct a workplace raid, representing interior enforcement actions targeting undocumented workers.
Similar to the executive order that initiated the travel ban, Trump may issue another executive order directing ICE to plan large-scale deportations targeting undocumented immigrants in workplaces, homes, and public spaces. His 2017 executive order “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States” serves as a potential starting point. While immediate mass deportations are logistically challenging, Trump can lay the groundwork for these operations and execute “shock and awe” actions to instill fear among undocumented populations, mirroring the immediate chilling effect of the travel ban.
Within days, Trump is expected to roll back the Biden administration’s DHS deportation priorities, which focused on individuals posing national security or public safety threats. Revoking this memo, similar to revoking Obama-era guidance in 2017, will broaden ICE’s authority to target all undocumented immigrants, regardless of criminal background. However, this shift could strain federal resources and potentially detract from focusing on individuals posing the most significant threats.
The second Trump administration is also likely to expand the use of expedited removal processes, allowing for faster deportations without judicial review for individuals in the U.S. for less than two years. This could bypass immigration courts and limit due process, potentially echoing concerns about due process raised during the implementation of the travel ban. Mass deportation strategies will likely involve recruiting and pressuring local law enforcement agencies to cooperate with federal immigration authorities, expanding programs like 287(g) and potentially withholding federal funding from jurisdictions with immigrant-friendly policies.
Trump has suggested using military resources for mass deportation efforts, a move that would face legal hurdles under the Posse Comitatus Act. He might attempt to justify military involvement under emergency authority, possibly the Insurrection Act, although this would be a significant departure from precedent and has raised alarms. Even without direct military enforcement, military resources could be used for logistical support like transportation and detention facility construction, potentially facing legal challenges as an improper use of defense appropriations.
Trump has also threatened to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to expedite removals by designating certain groups as national security threats, a tactic reminiscent of the broad national security justifications used for the travel ban. This act could bypass due process protections and legal constraints, but legal experts warn it could lead to civil rights violations, disrupting communities and harming families and the economy.
IV. Limiting Asylum Access
A second Trump administration will aim to further limit asylum access, building on the restrictive measures already in place and potentially mirroring the overarching goal of the travel ban to reduce entry into the U.S. This will involve reducing claims made at the southern border, which increased significantly during the Biden administration before new restrictions were introduced in 2024.
Trump has promised to reimplement the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), or “Remain in Mexico,” requiring asylum-seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. Reinstating MPP would reduce migrants released into U.S. communities but would place many in danger in Mexico. Reinstatement requires agreement from the Mexican government.
Similar to efforts to build support for the travel ban by engaging with international partners, the administration may try to negotiate or reinstate “safe third country agreements” with Central American nations or other countries to accept asylum-seekers before they reach the U.S. This would redirect asylum claims away from U.S. borders but faces diplomatic challenges. Trump previously negotiated such an agreement with Guatemala in 2019, with limited success. Resistance to MPP or safe third-country agreements could lead to pressuring regional partners, including trade restrictions and visa limitations.
Trump is likely to impose new restrictions on asylum eligibility through executive orders and policy guidance, further limiting who qualifies for protection under U.S. law. This could involve narrowing the definition of credible fear of persecution and stricter evidentiary requirements. During his first term, Trump attempted to deny asylum claims based on domestic violence or gang violence, though these efforts were blocked in court. He is expected to revisit these restrictions and further limit asylum requests between ports of entry, potentially eliminating the use of the CBP One phone app, despite its value for asylum-seekers scheduling interviews.
V. Revoking Immigration Protections and Eliminating Humanitarian Pathways
Within the first 100 days, a second Trump administration could revoke or jeopardize protections for over 2.7 million people with temporary protections, echoing the abrupt changes brought by the travel ban. While mass removals take time, rescinding protections for certain immigrant groups, making them ineligible to work and live in the U.S., can be immediate. Trump has vowed to end Biden-era humanitarian parole programs for individuals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The future of parole programs for Ukrainians and Afghans is also uncertain, with potential non-renewal or cancellation of existing paroles.
Vice President-elect JD Vance has promised to stop mass grants of Temporary Protected Status (TPS). New TPS designations are unlikely, and existing TPS grants may be allowed to lapse or be revoked, affecting hundreds of thousands currently working legally in the U.S. Similar actions against Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) are also possible.
Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming deputy chief of staff for policy, has repeatedly expressed his desire to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which protects Dreamers from deportation. DACA faces ongoing litigation, and the Supreme Court may decide its future. Even before a court decision, Trump may attempt to end DACA through rulemaking, removing work authorization from hundreds of thousands of Dreamers and leaving them vulnerable to removal.
However, Trump has recently indicated a willingness to work with Democrats on a legislative solution for Dreamers, suggesting a potential shift from purely enforcement-based approaches, contrasting with the uncompromising stance taken with the travel ban.
Trump will likely pause refugee admissions early in his term and then reduce the annual refugee resettlement cap, continuing the drastic cuts from his first term. During his first term, refugee admissions were cut to a historic low, with refugees depicted as security threats and economic burdens. These actions decimated the refugee resettlement system, which is again at risk, with some advisors potentially proposing to “zero out” refugee admissions entirely.
VI. Reducing Legal Immigration and Work Authorization
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to limit legal immigration, aiming to reshape the system much like the travel ban aimed to reshape entry. His administration will likely tighten visa issuance across work visas (H-1B), green cards for immediate relatives, and family preference programs. Trump advocates for a “merit-based” immigration system, potentially curtailing family reunification and humanitarian programs. He previously supported legislation like the RAISE Act, which favored merit-based criteria and reduced overall legal immigration levels.
A second Trump administration may slow down processing of green cards, nonimmigrant visas, and work authorization documents, potentially diverting resources from USCIS processing to enforcement. Stricter vetting processes for visas may be implemented to reduce foreign workers. “Immigration diplomacy” may be used to pressure countries to accept deportees, potentially limiting visas from countries deemed uncooperative.
The president has significant authority over temporary work visas. Trump is likely to reduce or eliminate temporary and nonimmigrant work visas like H-2A and H-2B, potentially restricting eligible countries, setting visa caps, increasing program requirements, or slowing processing.
During his first term, Trump used executive orders to restrict visa categories, citing the need to protect American jobs. Reimposing these restrictions could severely impact industries reliant on foreign workers, exacerbating labor shortages, especially when combined with mass deportation efforts. However, these actions may face legal challenges.
Trump may seek to end the Diversity Immigrant Visa program, criticizing it for inadequate vetting. Renewed attempts to eliminate or alter the visa lottery through executive action would likely face legal challenges, as Congress established the program.
New restrictions on international students, including limits on Optional Practical Training (OPT), are possible. A draft rule to eliminate OPT from his first term may be revived.
The administration could also undermine T and U visas for victims of trafficking and crimes, potentially eliminating or minimizing these pathways, as suggested by advisors in the Project 2025 framework. U visa processing already faces significant backlogs, and restricting deferred action during waiting periods could leave applicants without protection.
Finally, a second Trump administration could reimpose or expand restrictive “public charge” policies, affecting immigrants’ ability to secure legal permanent status. The expanded definition of “public charge” from his first term, including noncash benefits, led to a “chilling effect,” with immigrants avoiding public benefits even when eligible, fearing immigration status repercussions.
VII. Attacking Citizenship
Trump has reiterated his promise to end birthright citizenship, a constitutional right under the 14th Amendment, a policy that would be as fundamentally transformative as the initial travel ban in its reshaping of immigration law. Ending birthright citizenship would create a population of stateless individuals born in the U.S., increasing the undocumented population.
While executive orders cannot override the Constitution, Trump may issue an order reinterpreting the 14th Amendment to deny citizenship to children born in the U.S. to undocumented parents, arguing they are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States. This interpretation contradicts Supreme Court precedent and would face immediate legal challenges. However, Trump has expressed confidence in the Supreme Court ruling in his favor. Executive actions to prevent U.S.-born children of noncitizens from receiving birth certificates or Social Security numbers are also possible, creating new barriers to citizenship.
A second Trump administration may also revitalize denaturalization efforts, targeting naturalized citizens for deportation for fraud during naturalization or criminal activity post-citizenship. “Operation Janus” from his first term, which sought to identify individuals who “improperly” obtained citizenship, may be revived, potentially denaturalizing citizens for minor errors on paperwork, a significant break from past practices.
VIII. Conclusion
A second Trump administration is prepared to enact sweeping changes to restrict immigration, starting January 20. Many executive orders and administrative actions will have immediate impact within the first 100 days, even without congressional legislation. These actions will focus on reinstating restrictive policies from his first term, including Title 42, deportations, asylum limits, and potentially reviving a form of the travel ban in spirit if not in name, alongside new measures like expanded expedited removal and revocation of protections for Dreamers and TPS holders.
Alt text: President Donald Trump signs an executive order on immigration in the Oval Office, highlighting the executive power used to implement immigration policies.
While these policies align with Trump’s immigration agenda focused on border security and limiting entry, reminiscent of the goals behind the travel ban, they will face logistical and legal hurdles and are likely to cause economic repercussions, social disruption, and public outcry. Even without substantial congressional funding, a second Trump administration could immediately disrupt and damage the immigration system, significantly reducing both legal and illegal immigration flows into the United States.
