Thanksgiving week in the United States is traditionally one of the busiest travel periods of the year. However, this year, travelers across several US states may face significant disruptions due to a series of winter storms. Forecasters are closely monitoring an evolving weather pattern that threatens to bring snow, rain, and hazardous conditions to various regions, potentially impacting holiday travel plans.
West Coast Braces for Early Week Moisture Surge
The weather disturbances begin on the West Coast, with an upper-level trough moving in from the northeast Pacific. This system is pulling in a plume of subtropical moisture, set to impact central and southern California starting Monday, November 25. Coastal areas and the Sierra Nevada are expected to bear the brunt of this moisture.
Lower elevations in the southern Sierra Nevada, specifically areas below 2,440 meters (8,000 feet), are at risk of flash flooding on Monday due to excessive rainfall. The heavy rain in these mountainous regions also raises concerns about potential rockslides, mudslides, and general debris flow, further complicating travel in the area.
Higher up in the southern Sierra, the threat shifts to heavy snowfall. Predictions indicate a substantial accumulation of 0.9 to 1.2 meters (3 to 4 feet) of snow by Wednesday morning, November 27. Isolated areas could even see snowfall exceeding these amounts. As midweek approaches, this moisture plume is forecast to move inland, affecting the interior western United States.
Snowfall Expected Across the Intermountain West and Rockies
Moving inland, the Intermountain West and Colorado Rockies are also preparing for significant snowfall. Forecasts predict accumulations of 2.5 to 5 cm (1 to 2 inches) across these regions, with some localized areas potentially seeing up to 7.6 cm (3 inches). Snow showers are also anticipated in parts of the Great Basin early in the week.
The I-25 corridor is expected to see snow accumulations of around 5 cm (2 inches) by Monday morning. These snowy conditions, coupled with reduced visibility, could create challenging and potentially dangerous driving conditions for those traveling in the area.
In Denver, travelers should anticipate progressively colder temperatures throughout the week. Highs are expected to drop from around 7°C (mid-40s °F) on Monday to a chilly 0°C (low 30s °F) by Wednesday. While Thanksgiving Day itself may bring a slight chance of snow, current forecasts suggest clearer skies for Friday, November 29. However, consistently cold temperatures will persist throughout the week.
Eastern US to See Rain and Potential Storm Development
While the western and central US grapple with snow, the eastern part of the country will experience a different set of weather conditions. Light rain showers are expected across the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest, with northern Minnesota and Wisconsin potentially seeing snow on Monday.
Tuesday brings the likelihood of localized rain to the Northeast, with light to moderate rainfall expected throughout the day across the region. While rain is possible along the entire East Coast, meteorologists currently believe this system will not be particularly severe. Northern New England could see up to 25 mm (1 inch) of rain, while southern New England is likely to receive 12.7 mm (0.5 inch) or less.
However, the weather picture becomes more concerning as Tuesday progresses into Wednesday. Snowfall is predicted to intensify from late Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing accumulations expected, particularly in mountain passes and even at lower elevations. Adding to the travel woes, winds could reach up to 56 km/h (35 mph), creating hazardous driving conditions due to blowing snow and reduced visibility.
Geographic map showing precipitation forecast in shades of green, blue and white
Thanksgiving Day and Beyond: Northeast Storm Watch
Wednesday, November 25, traditionally the busiest travel day of Thanksgiving week, is expected to see the most active weather in the central states and Rockies. According to Weather.com meteorologists, “Snow could impact travel in Colorado and Utah, including Denver. Meanwhile, a developing wave of low pressure could bring rain to the mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Ohio Valley. There might be a sliver of snowfall or wintry mix on the northern fringe of that rainfall.” Fortunately, for those traveling to the coasts, current predictions suggest that “at this time, it appears much of the East Coast and West Coast will stay dry and avoid any major travel hassles” on Wednesday.
Windy conditions are expected across the Upper Midwest, while the primary storm system continues to move through the Rockies, bringing further rain and snow showers to the region. Rain is also anticipated in the Southern Plains on Wednesday, alongside continued accumulating snowfall in Colorado and Wyoming.
Looking ahead to the end of Thanksgiving week, a potentially significant storm is expected to develop and impact the Northeast. This storm is forecast to intensify on Thanksgiving Day, November 28, spreading rain across a large swathe of the South, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states. Light snow may even develop late in the day on the northern edges of this storm system.
The Northeast is expected to feel the full force of this developing storm on Friday. While a detailed forecast is still some days away, potential scenarios range from heavy rainstorms with snow in higher elevations to a significant coastal storm that could severely impact southern New England. Travelers heading to or through the Northeast should pay close attention to updated forecasts as Thanksgiving week progresses.
Travelers across the United States should stay informed about the evolving weather situation and check local forecasts and travel advisories before and during their Thanksgiving journeys. Flexibility and caution will be key to navigating potential travel disruptions caused by these winter storms.
References:
1 Short Range Public Discussion – WPC – November 25, 2024
2 Thanksgiving Weather Travel Forecast: Here’s A Look At Where Rain, Snow Could Interrupt Plans – Weather.com – November 25, 2024
3 Thanksgiving Week Weather in Colorado: Snowstorm to Disrupt Travel Starting Tuesday – Country Herald – November 24, 2024
4 Large storm could impact northeast around Thanksgiving. Here’s what we know. – CBS – November 24, 2024
